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FEBRUARY 23,  2016

THERE'LL BE NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT BECAUSE I'VE BEEN WATCHING RESULTS FROM NEVADA, AND THE ACCOMPANYING ANALYSIS, CAREFULLY.

2:52 A.M. ET:  It's hard to believe what we're seeing.  In Nevada, Donald Trump not only won, but burst through his previous highs.  Right now he's running at about 47% of the vote.  Rubio is second with about 24%, and Cruz third with about 20%.  Those figures change periodically, but only by small amounts.

It's astounding what Trump has accomplished, against all the conventional, and some unconventional wisdom.

We should point out that Nevada is a caucus state, not a true primary state.  Caucuses can be confused and disorganized.   They are sensitive to weather conditions, and the candidate's organization on the ground.  But next Tuesday, March 1st, is Super Tuesday.   Here is a map of what Super Tuesday looks like.  The states are weighted toward the South, with Democrats and Republicans voting in most of them on the same day.  If Super Tuesday cannot decide the nomination contests, it can certainly point in the direction of who will win the nominations.

The question:  After tonight's blowout in Nevada, will Trump's momentum build to the point where psychology takes over and voters simply flock to him to be with the presumed winner?  I was watching the eyes of his Secret Service detail tonight as he shook the hands of his supporters.  Those were serious eyes.  This is no longer a novelty or a celebrity campaign.  No matter what you think of Trump, and I am not a supporter, he must now be considered a strong possibility to be the next president.

Exit polling showed that Trump captured almost every category of voter, including evangelicals.  The fact that evangelicals can support a man with a turbulent marital history, and one who has cursed in public, may show that the evangelical vote has become more flexible, more willing to overlook some sins in favor of other issues.  I'm not an expert on that, but it appears true, for Trump has done well with evangelicals throughout the campaign.

Polling in Super Tuesday states shows Trump leading in almost all of them.  Those numbers can squeeze as the intense ad campaigns being run in those states takes hold.  But unless Marco Rubio really surprises us next Tuesday and starts to challenge Trump numerically, this campaign could be heading for a conclusion rather early.  I think that would be sad.  I'm still hoping for an open convention, but Rubio or Cruz have to break through in the coming weeks.

Rubio captured the number two spot tonight, but was more than 20 points behind Trump.  Cruz, whose campaign suddenly seems wobbly and disorganized, came in third.  Rubio has been getting a number of endorsements this week.  He is the informal head of the "stop Trump" brigade, but Trump, thus far, is not being stopped.

Super Tuesday is sometimes described as the second most important political day in America in a presidential election year.  Looks that way, doesn't it?

February 23, 2016       Permalink

WILL JEB GO ALONG?  – AT 5:55 P.M. ET:   Please remember that the GOP Nevada caucuses take place today.  We'll be monitoring the results.

Today's caucuses represent the first primary event in which Jeb Bush is not participating.  He dropped out after Saturday's South Carolina primary.  Bush was Marco Rubio's political mentor, and it turns out the two will meet.  Will there be a Bush endorsement?  Funds?  Will Bush sign on to any stop-Trump campaign?  He may not have gotten that many votes, but Bush still has a voice in the Republican establishment.  From The New York Times: 

LAS VEGAS — Since Jeb Bush’s withdrawal from the presidential race on Saturday, endorsements from prominent Republicans have been piling up for Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

Just in the last day, former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah and Gov. Asa Hutchison of Arkansas have signed on.

But there is one endorsement that remains elusive: Mr. Bush’s.

Leaving Nevada on Tuesday for a day of campaigning in Minnesota and Michigan, Mr. Rubio told reporters that he had spoken on Monday with Mr. Bush, the former governor, who was his mentor in Florida politics. He said the two planned to meet sometime in the near future.

Mr. Rubio said he had not asked for Mr. Bush’s endorsement. “He’s just decompressing from this election,” Mr. Rubio told reporters. “And trying to get going again in the rest of his life. But we’ll meet and talk soon enough.”

He characterized their talk as friendly. “A nice conversation,” he said. “We’re going to get together soon.”

COMMENT:  The big question on the Republican side is whether Trump can be stopped.  I should note that I've never seen a "stop" movement succeed.   Recall that the GOP establishment tried to stop Reagan in 1980, and that the Dem establishment tried to stop Jimmy Carter, the pathetic one, in 1976.  There were plenty of attempts to stop Jack Kennedy in 1960.  Kennedy was seen as boyish and inexperienced.  None of those "stop" efforts succeeded.

There's always a first time.

February 23, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER IMPORTANT ELECTION – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  Let's not forget another upcoming election of critical significance to Americans.  Iran votes Friday on a national parliament.  From AFP:

Iran’s former president Mohammad Khatami and his predecessor have urged voters to back reformists and moderates in Friday elections, saying a big turnout is needed to stop hardline conservatives.

Khatami, who is subject to a domestic media ban because of his support for defeated reformist leaders in a disputed 2009 presidential election, took to YouTube late Sunday to send a message to voters.

“After the successful first step in 2013, this coalition should take the second step for the Majlis (parliament),” he said in a four-minute video, dubbing a joint ticket of reformists and moderates as “a list of hope”.

He was referring to incumbent Hassan Rouhani’s 2013 presidential election victory which led to a nuclear deal that ended a 13-year standoff with world powers.

In this week’s election, Rouhani is looking to overturn the majority in parliament of conservatives who resisted the nuclear deal and have also opposed his broader outreach to the West.

Despite the ban on use of his image or words in Iran’s print and broadcast media, Khatami, who served as president from 1997 to 2005, remains an important figure in the pro-Rouhani coalition, the Alliance of Reformists and Government Supporters.

“I suggest that all blocs agree to present the list as the list of hope to the people,” he said.

COMMENT:  We'll follow the Friday election in Iran.  If the moderates win, better for us.  But if the hardliners win, it will be even more difficult to get the Iran nuclear deal to stick.  Betting is on the hardliners, who currently control the parliament.

By the way, this "election" isn't the kind the grownups have.  In order to run you have to be approved by the government.  Not exactly democratic rule.

February 23, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE OTHER PARTY – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  Conventional wisdom is back.  It's now believed by the pundit class that Hillary Clinton will put Bernie Sanders away in short order.  From Fox: 

The Inevitable Hillary Clinton has returned.

The media have spoken and again bestowed the cloak of inevitability on the Democratic front-runner.

One five-point win over Bernie Sanders in the Nevada caucuses was all it took. In other words, the Democratic race was fun while it lasted.

You might think the pundits would be allergic to the I-word. After all, they first described Hillary that way in 2007, and yet she lost.

Then they described Hillary that way in 2015, and she plummeted in the polls, finished a few coin flips ahead of Bernie in Iowa and got decimated in New Hampshire.

But here it is in Slate: “Winning Nevada makes Hillary Clinton’s nomination virtually inevitable.”

Or as the Huffington Post’s banner headline put it: “BERNING OUT?”

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  It's a very good summary of the Democratic race.  I happen to think that in this case the pundit class is correct.  Bernie is a temporary phenomenon, who got a big boost because Hillary really isn't that popular in her own party.  Also, the early primary states favored Bernie.  It's getting more difficult now.

The Democratic Party machinery is in Hillary's hands.  And she commands the minorities, who dominate the Democratic Party.   

One thing not in Hillary's hands is the FBI.  She can put Bernie away, but they can put her away.

February 23, 2016       Permalink

THIS CRAZY ELECTION YEAR – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Nothing seems rational nor predictable this year.  On the Republican side, the assumption has been that Governor John Kasich of Ohio would win his state's primary on March 15th, barely three weeks from now.  Not so fast.  From The Politico:

Donald Trump leads John Kasich by five points in the governor's home state of Ohio, according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican primary voters released Tuesday.

With 31 percent, Trump leads the field ahead of the state's March 15 primary, while Kasich comes in a close second with 26 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz followed with 21 percent, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (13 percent) and Ben Carson (5 percent) rounding out the final five candidates. Just 5 percent said they are undecided about their candidate among those choices.

The poll, which was conducted between last Tuesday and Saturday, includes the second choice of supporters of Jeb Bush, who suspended his campaign after a disappointing finish in the South Carolina primary. The numbers — though close, and likely subject to many twists and turns between now and March 15 — are a blow to Kasich, who is hoping a triumph in his home state's winner-take-all primary will propel him to the nomination.

Trump and Cruz are competitive among those identifying as members of the tea party, white, born-again evangelical Christians and those describing themselves as very conservative, within the margin of error. Kasich, meanwhile, is down one point to Trump among moderates and liberals in his state, and down three points among those who described themselves as somewhat conservative.

COMMENT:  We keep pointing out that most people in GOP primaries are not voting for Trump, and that's true.  But he keeps getting more votes than anyone else, and that's also true.

The key question now is whether the psychological power of Trump's victories, minority victories though they may be, will overwhelm all else, and cause the opposition to weaken.  I hope that's not true, and that we can fight through to an open convention, but Trump's sheer power never ceases to amaze.  Who would have thought it a year ago?

February 23,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 22,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MAJOR POLITICAL ENDORSEMENT – From Showbiz411:  Dick van Dyke Endorses Bernie Sanders: “He may be the last voice we ever hear”  So, the waiting is over.  Now we know who won the coveted Dick Van Dyke endorsement.  I don't know why anyone else but Bernie should even campaign right now.  It's reported that Hillary made a direct appeal to Van Dyke by getting on the phone and singing the theme from the "Mary Tyler Moore Show." 

THE PRESIDENT'S HOME TOWN – From the Chicago Tribune:   Four homicides over the weekend and two more Monday morning pushed Chicago's homicide count so far this year to double the same period last year.  The city has recorded at least 95 homicides since the first of the year, compared to 47 last year, according to data kept by the Tribune. The city has also more than doubled the amount of people shot - about 420 this year compared to 193 last year.  Thirty-two people were shot in Chicago over the weekend, the youngest among them a 3-year-old boy shot in the leg in the Englewood neighborhood.  I wonder if the "black lives matter" movement has any interest in this, or do black lives matter only when they have political value?

SMARTPHONES NOT SMART? – From Financial Times:   In January, British actor Eddie Redmayne made headlines around the world as he became the latest in a growing band of smartphone refuseniks.
“It was a reaction against being glued permanently to my iPhone during waking hours,” he explained, turning instead to an old-fashioned “dumb phone” handset that could only make and take calls.  He is not alone. There is a small but busy market for phones that are simple and cheap at a time when smartphones are becoming ever more complex and expensive.  This was bound to happen.  There is a limit to the appeal of technology, especially to the young, who quickly go on to something new, or discover an older technology that appeals to them.  Also, common sense issues, like the smallness of the screen and the keyboard, start taking their toll.  I prefer tablets.  I don't make many calls, and I can actually do research on a tablet screen.

RUSSIA WANTS BETTER SPYING –  From AP:   WASHINGTON (AP) -- Russia will ask permission on Monday to start flying surveillance planes equipped with high-powered digital cameras amid warnings from U.S. intelligence and military officials that such overflights help Moscow collect intelligence on the United States.  Russia and the United States are signatories to the Open Skies Treaty, which allows unarmed observation flights over the entire territory of all 34 member nations to foster transparency about military activity and help monitor arms control and other agreements. Senior intelligence and military officials, however, worry that Russia is taking advantage of technological advances to violate the spirit of the treaty.  I'm shocked, shocked, that anyone would suggest that our Russian friends would violate the spirit of the treaty.   Why, they simply want clearer pictures because they're easier on the eyes.  Russian eyes matter.

February 22, 2016       Permalink

AN IMPORTANT VOTE – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:   We are being distracted by our election campaign.  Important things are happening around the world.  One of them is the British referendum, scheduled for June, on whether Britain should leave the European Union.  From Sky News:

Boris Johnson has revealed he will campaign for Britain to leave the EU in a major blow to the Prime Minister.

The decision by the London Mayor ends months of speculation and represents a huge coup for the Leave campaign, given his broad appeal among voters.

Mr Johnson informed the PM by text just nine minutes before making his statement.

While he told reporters David Cameron had done "fantastically well" in the deal he reached with Brussels, he added no one "could realistically claim that this is fundamental reform of the EU".

Mr Johnson said: "The last thing I wanted was to go against David Cameron or the Government, but after a great deal of heartache, I don't think there's anything else I could do.

"I will be advocating Vote Leave ... because I want a better deal for the people of this country to save them money and to take back control."

He added: "What I won't do is take part in loads of TV debates against other members of my party and I was told what the Prime Minister had to say this morning about not sharing platforms with George Galloway and other individuals, and I won't do that either."

COMMENT:  It's a major vote.  The EU is a huge bureaucracy that devastates the sovereignty of the member nations.  It is really accountable only to itself.

I'd like to see Britain leave.  I'd like to see the EU crumble.  The confused elitists can find employment elsewhere, like on American college campuses.  I'd like to see individual European cultures rise again.  The diversity, to use a current, trendy term, is healthy.

February 22, 2016       Permalink

THIS IS NUTS – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:   Donald Trump, maybe a bit overconfident, is now questioning whether Marco Rubio is Constitutionally eligible to be president.  He raised the same question earlier about Ted Cruz.  I guess Trump is really going for the Hispanic vote.  From Fox: 

Marco Rubio has joined Ted Cruz in Donald Trump’s crosshairs.

Fresh off his Saturday win in the South Carolina Republican primary, Trump said Sunday he didn’t know whether Rubio, a Florida senator who finished second, was eligible to run for president and that “the lawyers have to determine that.”

“I don’t know,” Trump told George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week.” “I really – I’ve never looked at it, George. I honestly have never looked at it. As somebody said, he’s not. And I retweeted it. I have 14 million people between Twitter and Facebook and Instagram and I retweet things, and we start dialogue and it’s very interesting.”

Rubio brushed aside Trump’s assertions later on “This Week.”

And...

Trump was questioned on the issue after he retweeted a supporter Saturday who made the allegation and linked to a video from the Powdered Wig Society, a conservative news and commentary website. That video features an unidentified woman claiming someone can only be a “natural-born citizen” if the person’s father was a U.S. citizen.

The Constitution states only a “natural-born citizen” can be president, though it does not explicitly define that phrase.

Rubio, whose parents came to the U.S. from Cuba in the 1950s, was born in Florida in 1971. His parents were not U.S. citizens at the time.

COMMENT:  It's absurd.  If you are born in the United States, you are a natural-born citizen.  It doesn't matter where your parents came from.  Trump has no case here.  He should get off it.  He has to prove to the voters that he's a mature and responsible candidate, and this isn't helping.

February 22, 2016       Permalink

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE – AT 9:45 A.M. ET:  Some are arguing that Donald Trump is "inevitable," that it's all but wrapped up.  Others are saying, wait a minute.  Not so fast.  From Andrew Malcolm at IBD:

Donald Trump, the billionaire boy from Queens, now says he loves South Carolina. Special place, let me tell you. FANtastic people. Understandable feelings since the New Yorker had a big primary day there.

Now, if Trump can just repeat his successful showing in eight more states – starting with Nevada’s caucuses Tuesday – the real estate dealer will hold the same commanding campaign lead as Rick “Remember Me?” Santorum four years ago.

Ricky did not get the 2012 nomination, and we’ll see how Donald does in what’s shaping up as the very long run.

As far as he’s concerned, of course, Trump’s already talking of sewing up the nomination very soon. Which is going to be so great for the party. And the country. Believe him.

And...

Front-runners like Trump often talk inevitable to make it self-fulfilling. Recall Clinton’s nomination was inevitable in 2007-08 and again this year. Even ISIS plays the momentum game. Submit now. Resistance is futile.

As swell as Trump’s ratings are after his weekend show, it’s important to remember that barely four percent of the party’s Cleveland delegates are picked so far. From now until mid-March they’ll be won proportionally in each state, not winner-take-all. Many, however, have a 20% minimum, meaning the winner of a plurality in a crowded field could, in effect, win all the delegates.

And...

Exit polls were revealing and possibly predictive of a long-term trend. Angry voters went for Trump; his vague promises beyond “fantastic” outcomes and U.S. “wins” alienate no one, allowing listeners to hear in his words anything their angry hearts desire.

Those South Carolinians seeking a candidate sharing their values opted for Cruz (38%) and Rubio (26%).

Those who above everything else want to win the White House on Nov. 8 went overwhelmingly for Rubio at 49%, which more than doubled Cruz’s number and almost tripled Trump’s.

COMMENT:  This race is far from over.  It may go all the way to an open convention, in which case the party establishment plays an oversized role.  That establishment dislikes both Trump and Cruz. 

Stand by.  The excitement builds.  And, in the other party, the frontrunner is waiting for the verdict from the FBI.

As they say, you can't write this stuff.

February 22,  2016      Permalink